Ethiopian Armed Groups Form Alliance Against Government

The coalition, named the Ethiopian Peoples' Forces Alliance for Survival, was announced on Sunday, September 20, 2026, in a statement read live on Tigray TV by Zemene Kassie, chairman of the Amhara Fano National Movement. The announcement marks a significant escalation in the armed opposition facing Abiy's Prosperity Party-led government.

Who Is in the Alliance

The seven groups represent a geographically and ethnically diverse coalition spanning half of Ethiopia's 12 regional states:

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• Amhara Fano National Movement – A coalition of Fano militias that has fought federal forces in the Amhara region since 2023
• Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) – Dominated Ethiopian politics for nearly three decades before Abiy took office; fought a two-year civil war against federal forces
• Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) – An active insurgency in Ethiopia's most populous region, fighting federal forces since 2018
• Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF) – Operating in the Somali region
• Afar Revolutionary Democratic Unity Front – Based in the Afar region
• Benishangul Peoples' Liberation Movement – Operating in Benishangul-Gumuz
• Gumuz Peoples' Democratic Movement – Also based in Benishangul-Gumuz

Fano leader Zemene Kassie will chair the alliance, according to TPLF Vice President Amanuel Assefa.

A Coalition of Former Enemies

The formation of the alliance is remarkable because it brings together groups that have fought against each other. The Fano militia fought alongside federal forces against the TPLF during the 2020-2022 Tigray war, which left an estimated 600,000 people dead and was marked by ethnically driven atrocities. Fano subsequently turned against the federal government in 2023 after refusing orders to disarm.

The TPLF and Fano also have unresolved territorial disputes, particularly over Western Tigray, which Amhara nationalists have administered since the end of the war.

"We think we will be successful, we have been talking with each other for more than a year," Amanuel said. He added that the groups would "sit at the table later to solve our problems peacefully."

The Alliance's Stated Objectives

In its founding statement, the coalition accused the Prosperity Party-led government of presiding over "widespread insecurity, armed conflict, displacement, poverty and the erosion of democratic and human rights." It characterized the government as a "personalistic dictatorial and genocidal regime" that had brought about "war, genocide and destruction" and pushed Ethiopia toward what it called "total disintegration."

The alliance outlined two principal objectives for a proposed transitional period:

1. Ending armed conflicts and addressing Ethiopia's security, humanitarian, social and economic crises
2. Conducting a "genuine, trustworthy, inclusive and participatory popular constitutional dialogue" to address major national questions through direct popular participation

The coalition also pledged to improve relations with neighboring countries and restore what it described as Ethiopia's regional and international standing.

"We, the peoples' forces concerned with the survival of Ethiopia's peoples, bear the historic responsibility of overthrowing this regime," the statement read.

TPLF Says Peace Deal "No Longer Valid"

TPLF spokesman Michael Asgedom told the Associated Press that his group's cooperation with other opposition factions was both political and military. Asked whether the TPLF's participation in the alliance violated the 2022 Pretoria peace agreement that ended the Tigray war, Asgedom said that accord was "no longer valid."

The TPLF had already declared the peace deal "effectively dead" in July after unilaterally reinstating its pre-war regional administration in May.

Ethiopia's Response

Federal authorities have not yet formally responded to the alliance announcement. The Ethiopian Media Authority responded on Monday by declaring Tigray TV an illegal entity and accusing it of promoting insurgency.

Last month, after reports of a possible coalition, an adviser to Abiy said any such formation would seek to wreak havoc but would not be able to overthrow the federal government. Abiy himself told lawmakers in July: "Even if others were added, we do not have an iota of fear regarding Ethiopia's sovereignty."

Expert Skepticism

Kjetil Tronvoll, a regional specialist at Oslo New University College in Norway, cast doubt on the alliance's ability to overthrow the federal government, which possesses numerous drones.

"I am not sure they will be able to sustain such a war," Tronvoll said. However, he added: "If they coordinate as a military command, it may make a difference. It is a potential four to five fronts that the government will have to deal with; it might be a challenge."

He also questioned what might come after any takeover, given the armed groups' different ideologies.

The Broader Context

The alliance announcement comes amid escalating tensions in northern Ethiopia. Both the government and the TPLF have massed troops along the Tigray border in recent months, according to the African Union, fueling fears of a return to full-scale war.

The Ethiopian military has carried out several drone strikes against Tigrayan forces in recent months, according to data from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data project. The military said last week that nearly 300 Tigrayan fighters had surrendered.

Ethiopia has also accused neighboring Eritrea of supporting Tigrayan rebels, an allegation Eritrea denies.

Abiy's Prosperity Party retained its parliamentary majority in June's general election, which was boycotted by the main opposition groups. The Fano and OLA rejected the results and the Tigray region's six million inhabitants were excluded from the poll entirely.

With reporting from the Associated Press, Addis Standard, BBC, AFP, Reuters, Euronews, TRT Afrika and other international media.